One of the main conflicts between Iran and P5+1 China, France, Russia, Britain, and the United States, plus Germany was the issue of military aspect of Iran’s nuclear program. Possible military dimensions (PMD) of Iran nuclear program were being investigated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Nuclear talks of Iran and P5+1, primarily aimed to limits the scope and level of Irans uranium enrichment and plutonium production capabilities. So reaching to a consensus about PMD was a bottle neck of implementing the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). Tuesday (2015/15/12), IAEA board of governors according to final assessment on past and present outstanding issues regarding Irans nuclear program adopted a resolution.
Another macro economical change during the past week was announcement of rate hike of U.S. Federal Reserve, data series show that correlation of oil with dollar price is negative. So by increasing the interest rate, Dollar appreciated versus most of currencies and also versus Rial.
Effects on TSE
Reaction of investors in Tehran Stock Market (TSE) to the resolution of PMD and rate hike is attractive. TEDPIX index of TSE has been decreased, we can explain this decline because investors had expected this resolution and already, the future cash flow of it was discounted to present prices. And also the appreciation of dollar will lead to decrease the price of commodities like oil and because Irans stock market is mainly a commodity based market so the effect of rate hike was not positive to TSE.
Another aspect of view shows that, TSE investors achieve to a kind of maturity that lead to avoiding them from overreaction because its true that PMD has resolved but still nothing has not implemented.
Investment analysts forecast the growth of TSE when all sanctions are lifted and trading of Iran and the world is done smoothly. After sanctions lifts, foreign investors can participate in Iran specially its stock market and the companies import and export will become easier and the cost of it because of direct dealing with world (without intermediaries) will be decreased. When the said conditions happened TEDPIX index will be increased. TEDPIX index of TSE is shown below. As its seen the declining trend is continued and the low stock prices, gradually become attractive for investors.