At the June meeting of the FOMC, FED President Yellen cited the target range for the benchmark rate would be kept unchanged at 0.25% to 0.5%. This decision met markets expectations based on rising concerns regarding Brexit weighed on global financial markets, and a slowing of the US labour market in May, clouded growth perceptions for the US economy. In response to the central banks decision and the subsequent press conference by the Fed Chief, the Dollar index DXY declined to a low of 94.33 from the previous high of 95.46 hit on intraday trading sessions.
Now the point is to figure out how high are the odds of raising the benchmark rate in coming FED meetings particularly in July. To find it out with some precision, we are analyzing its chart action from the technical perspective:
As it is apparent in the chart below, DXY is stuck between two rising and declining channel lines which specify key support zone at 92.70 and solid resistance zone at 94.90.A break through either of mentioned levels will last for a more considerable time period.
In case the break out occurs from the downside, the decline is expected to continue to below 90 major level at around 89.75 which is overlapped by 50% retracement of the rally from 78.90 point to the high of 100.74 hit on March 13, 2016. On the other hand, a break above 95 level will trigger the DXY to start another rally which, in our belief, will lead to a new high above the psychological level of 100.
Timing, is the key to determine with high possibility- whether a rise will happen or a decline is ahead.
The chart below depicts the Fibonacci Time which is drawn from the low of 78.90 on May, 7th, 2014 to the high of 100.75 hit on March 13th, 2015. All main levels have acted as major pivots as they are obvious on the chart. The point is that, DXY started a sharp plunge after reaching to 200% fibbo level of time at around 99.60 point which is interpreted as a failure to form a new high. The most important time level ahead is 2.618% which is almost 3 months from now in which we believe that can form a major low. This timing is somehow bolding the September meeting for the FED to raise interest rates.
To conclude from both technical parameters mentioned above along with fundamental factors which are threatening the global economy right now, it is of a low chance to see benchmark interest rates to hike in June 2016 in our point of view.