The current move in the exchange market has indicated a different pattern from what we normally expected to see in recent years after 2013 presidential election. During the period of high fluctuations and severe instability of 2012 and early 2013, we had seen a tremendous depreciation of Iranian currency in which the value of USD had surged to brand new values of near 40,000 Rials as a consequence of deadlock in nuclear negotiations and along with expectations of total blockage of Iranian oil exports and a possible upcoming conflict. After the presidential election and following burst of hope, the exchange market had experienced a period of stability which continued until JCPOA signed and came into practice and after that until what is so-called unexpected result of US presidential election came to sight, leading to a period of uncertainty and instable market moves around the globe.
The Iranian currency has lost about 15 percent of its value in recent move due to a variety of reasons ranging from a surge in US Dollar value and concerns over future of the nuclear agreement and the possibility of returning lifted sanctions. Some experts address the current depreciation as a result of domestic recessionary forces as well as rising liquidity and a shortage of foreign reserves. However, at the same time Iranian Rial lost 15% of its value against US Dollar, Euro lost around 7%, Japanese Yen lost 10% and Turkish Lira lost even more of its value. Nothing at all exceptional and terrible happened, but an international appreciation of greenback resulting in others losing their value, which has affected Euro, Yen, Australian Dollar, Turkish Lira as well as Iranian Rials.
There are somehow genuine concerns over Trump’s policies which worth consideration, but there would be no such thing as complete rolling back of the nuclear deal or total destruction of something or anything, otherwise American aviation behemoth wouldn’t come to an agreement with Iran after the election. Upcoming administration in Washington would surely make some trouble, which all could be resolved. A number of experts analyze current market situation as a beginning to repeat events of 2012 predicting further devaluation of Rials along with good days of high inflation and easy money out of thin air for few. They also suggest those developments would be good for economy, but they don’t express clearly whose economy. The economy of currency speculators, raw materials exporters and those ready to exploit instabilities, would for sure improve.
Gradual devaluation of domestic currency based on global market movements and domestic inflation is already in place and acceptable, but returning to an era of high inflation and economic instability would be good for nobody but few exploiters. Recent depreciation is neither extraordinary nor a premonition for disaster, crash, bust or anything very few may desire.