Finally, Trump pulls the U.S. out of the landmark deal after many rhetorical threats. Nowadays, one of the most controversial news in Iran is different scenarios available for Iran in order to face with JCPOA. In fact, from the first day that Trump was chosen as a president of United States, the issue of withdrawing U.S. from this agreement was in minds of many and on 8th May 2018, Trump announced withdrawal of US from JCPOA.
It didn’t seem Trump retreat of his opinion according to his saying that JCPOA was not accurate from the beginning and also his achievements that he gained in discussion with North Korea, although other partners of JCPOA are interested to keep the nuclear deal with Iran. Additionally, according to independent news, “Even in the US, a poll found that public backing for the agreement is the highest ever, with 56 per cent supportive of keeping it, with 26 per cent opposed”. Germany, French and U.K. declared that they will keep up JCPOA regardless of Trump’s decision.
Altogether, now there are three possible scenarios for Iran according to Mohammad Javad Zarif Khonsari, Minister of Foreign Affairs:
- Iran will leave JCPOA too and devastate all of its adheres to JCPOA and resuming enrichment of uranium.
- Iran can complain to related committee based on mechanism which has been introduced in the nuclear deal. Till now, Iran referenced 11 claims to the commission which Federica Maria Mogherini declared violations of U.S. three times.
- The most serious and intense scenario; Iran will pull out of Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) agreement. According to Ali Akbar Salehi, Diplomat and the Head of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Iran just needs 4 days to restore 20% Uranium enrichment.
After U.S. president announced his decision to withdraw from Iran nuclear deal, Iran’s president, Rouhani declared Iran would be adhere to JCPOA until European parties respect to the deal. According to president Rouhani’s speech, JCPOA could be viable without presence of United States.
All in all, there are two probable scenarios for Iran’s future economy:
- U.S. will re-impose sanctions on Iran’s economy, especially on oil export. Considering the possibility of removal of Iran from oil suppliers, as the world’s fifth largest producer, and intensifying of geopolitical tensions in Middle East, oil could see higher prices in short term. Higher prices are beneficial for Iran due to ability of Iran to offer more bargain to its customers to keep its oil market share. But in domestic markets, Iran will face fluctuation in currency market and alternative investments such as gold and golden coins. As well as, attracting foreign investment and transporting new technologies to Iran that able us to produce higher productivity will be next to impossible. In addition, some problems in oil sales could tighten Iran’s budget, as well as this matter that Central Bank of Iran was unsuccessful to control recent currency fluctuations, all of these matters will result in lower economic growth in Iran.
- U.S. pulled out of JCPOA, however, Iran and rest of parties in nuclear deal including Russia, China and E.U. will be adhere to JCPOA. Iran will be able to sale oil but face with some problems to attract more foreign investment and also, U.S. will impede in Iran’s regular trading operations by threating companies with strong financial punishments. Under this scenario, Iran’s economy will endure many excess costs for providing its pillars and it cause to intense inefficiency and lower growth in whole economy.
To put it in a nutshell, it was in the minds of many, Trump pulled U.S. out of JCPOA, although it was not good news. Iran’s government prepared some scenarios to overcome this challenge as we mentioned them, but all in all, it would not be beneficial not only for Iran’s trading, but also internationally. It did not seem to be a win-win game.