On May 8th ,2018 Donald Trump declared US withdrawal from JCPOA. As a result of this decision, he signed executive order of re-imposing Iran’s sanctions. First round of sanctions came back into effect on August,2018 and the next set will be effective on November,2018. After re-imposing the first round of sanctions, different countries planned to leave Iran and decreased their economic transactions as a consequence of U.S. threats. In the meantime, some experts analyze the ability of Iranian export-oriented corporates to survive on these conditions. In this article, in order to investigate this issue more precisely, we reviewed sales` trends of 10 different companies that are listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) from petrochemical and commodities industries which affected more by imposing sanctions in the previous round of sanctions in 2012. In the tables below, sales of aforementioned corporates are shown during 1391 to 1396(solar year):
As shown above, Pardis Petrochemical Co. experienced 20 percent drop in sales in second half of 1392 because of sanctions although sometimes gas outage led to sale drop.
The main product of Zagros Co. is methanol which almost 96 percent of it exports to other countries. Production and sale of this company had faced some problems in 1391 and 1392 owing to gas outage in winter and sanctions. Gas problems had been solved but re-impose of sanctions may cause problems again.
Sales in Khorasan Co. in 1391 and 1392 are almost the same. In 1393 sale increased due to a new tower installation so it can be said that sanctions didn’t have any significant effect on Khorasan Co. Note that Khorasan sell 45 percent of its products in domestic market and export the rest.
As it is shown in the figure above, Kermanshah Co. didn’t face any notable problem in sale during sanctions era. Kermanshah exports almost 60 percent of its products.
calcimin Co. products are zinc concentrate and ingot, lead concentrate and ingot. In 1392 and 1393 production amount is higher than sales amount. As you see in the figure, amounts that are deposited almost were sold in 1394.
Production amount of sulfur concentrate in Bama Co. didn’t have noteworthy changes during the mentioned years. Sale combination has changed but in total production and sale didn’t take effect of sanctions.
Historical data about Mobarakeh Steel Co. shows no change due to sanctions, stagnation, boom and fluctuation of Iranian Rial against foreign exchanges and its sale follows a constant trend. In other words, its products are being sold no matter how much it produced.
Statistics that are shown in the figure above are slab and ingot sales which are almost in an appropriate upward trend except 1393 which is a bit lower in comparison to other years. Although in 1393, excess produced pellets were sold so that it can be said that total sale was almost stable.
We reviewed sales of 10 listed corporates during previous years. Statistics shows that export-based corporates may be affected more in case of sale amount by implementing the new round of sanctions but note that besides these issues, Rial-based profit margin of these corporates increases remarkably because of Rial depreciation against US Dollar and they won’t have problems in terms of profitability and can be seen as appropriate investment opportunities yet.