Iran and Turkey are two neighbor countries, they have close relations due to the similarity of culture and religion. In the table below, demographic data of two countries has been compared:
|Population||74.93 million (2013)||77.45 million (2013)|
|Age structure||0-14 years: 25.5%
55-64 years: 8.1%
65 years and over: 6.7%
|0-14 years: 23.7%
15-24 years: 18.7%
25-54 years: 46.1%
55-64 years: 6.3%
65 years and over: 5.2%
|Religions||Muslim 99.8% (mostly Sunni), other 0.2% (mostly Christians and Jews)||Muslim (official) 99.4% (Shia 90-95%, Sunni 5-10%), other (includes Zoroastrian, Jewish, and Christian) 0.3%, unspecified 0.4% (2011 est.)|
|Population growth rate||1.12% (2014 est.)||1.22% (2014 est.)|
|Health expenditures||6.7% of GDP (2011)||6% of GDP (2011)|
|Net migration rate||0.46 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2014 est.)||-0.08 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2014 est.)|
|GDP||798.8 billion dollar (2014)||425.33 billion dollar (2014)|
Above data shows Iran and Turkey are so similar in the case of geographic, population and religion. Their business trades value during 2015 was 9.76 billion dollar and in 2014 it was 13.719 billion dollar. From the beginning of Iran’s New Year (20th March 2016) till the turkey’s coup, Iran’s export to turkey was 1,354,703 thousand Dollar and the import from turkey was 777,000,268 Dollar. The targeted plan of these countries is to achieve 30 billion dollar trades, in order to achieve this objective, using local currencies (Rial and Lira) has been set.
Instability of political environment that lead to army coup will decrease the economic growth of Turkey and therefore investors will consider more risk for investing in Turkey and people may transfer their money to safer places and also gold market will be affected and its role as safe haven will be highlighted. Recent coup in Turkey will decline the trades especially with Russia and therefore this is an opportunity for Iranian businessmen to export more goods to Russia. On the other hand, it should be considered that Turkey’s government now has the appropriate reasons to fire oppositions from key roles by this leverage “the justice and development party” can renovate themselves and become more powerful which may lead to more integrity and economy growth.
Turkey is the connecting path of East Asia and Iran to Europe, as it is showed in the below picture, the straight line to move products and goods is crossing Turkey (green line) and the substitute path is Azerbaijan, Armenia (red line), obviously through simple geometric rules crossing Turkey is shorter and cheaper. But if conclusive environment will be continued in Turkey, the red line path will be used that directly increase the transportation expenses and as a result the cost of goods sold will be increased. If this scenario turns to reality, the export to Europe from East Asia will be more economical by using sea shipping even more than now.