It is an overstated platitude that a Trump presidency would be an early end to JCPOA. The foundation for such a deduction is that Donald Trump is a far right republican nominee who is in favor of hard force against rivals and is anything but negotiator. It has not passed much time since Republicans finally accepted him as the front runner candidate. The RNC had put into effect all its power to hinder Trump advancing through candidacy before they finally submitted to him. There is one critical implication here connecting the acceptance of Donald Trump in the Republican establishment and what he would do to the nuclear deal. Republicans had been supporting Trump’s rivals Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and mainly Ted Cruz by all their power, and at the same time been observing his political juggernaut conquering one state after another.
One of the great mysteries of current time might be Trump’s supporting base. Many analysts and political experts are confused how a billionaire businessman with such a skill at casting hate sentiment could conquer minds and hearts of a winning majority of republican primary voters. In my opinion, the answer to this confusion is not so out of reach, that is Donald Trump says what his supporters want to hear. In other words, what he projects is highly favorable by his voting base; otherwise they would not support him at all. He is not committed much to Republican establishment and does not see any reason to abide by their agenda but to follow his own. Therefore, if one wants to have an understanding of what trump might do with JCPOA, his agenda should be taken into account.
The nuclear deal is widely an accepted international deal approved not only by Iran and P5+1 but also by international institutions of IAEA and UN Security Council, although it is embedded within the deal that any party can claim non-performance, and, at least in theory, blowing up the deal by the whim of one party is not impossible. However, if we assume Iran’s commitment to JCPOA provisions, bringing up the case against the deal by American administration with nonsense reasons could really impose severe costs to the United States power and reputation in the world. If a US president wants to go that way, there should be strong incentives for him to do such a thing.
The nuclear deal has explicit enemies: Saudi Arabia, Israel and Republican establishment as well. Donald trump has shown in his rhetoric that he has not any respect for the Saudi government. He has clarified that the United States has not any single reason to support the stability of Saudi regime by American taxpayer’s money, which is exactly what his voting base strongly believes. He has insisted that while Saudis are sitting on god-knows amount of wealth, why destitute American taxpayer should pay for Saudi’s stability and peace. He also says similar things about Japan and Germany.
The point is although in classical view, Saudi Arabia is a friend and Iran is an enemy to US, Donald Trump does not believe in that custom in his agenda. He also does not believe that Russia is an enemy and China is a friend, since public opinion supporting him, mostly blue collar wagers, has no negative sentiment about Russia but considers China a threat to their jobs. Trump has said in word that he supports Israel, but, he actually has no obligation to Israel’s interests more than a small country in the MENA region for which no American taxpayer money should be expended, since American public cares much about anything but the security of Israel.
Thus, Trump has no real incentive to disrupt the Iran nuclear deal, because he does not really care much about those three parties against the deal. His main focus has been his grassroots supporters and their concerns, as once questioned about effectiveness of the nuclear deal, Trump did not say anything about Saudis, Israelis, and political issues but he insisted that Irans order for buying aircrafts from France-based Airbus instead of U.S.-based Boeing is an indicator of a failed Iran nuclear deal.