As I predicted in the first part of this issue, there has not been any act of breaking the nuclear deal by the Trump administration on the paper yet, but some abstract rhetoric and insisting on close examining Iran’s commitment to its obligations. Nonetheless, Iran has been and will be committed to JCPOA, thus, such an agenda promotes more of preserving the deal rather than breaking it as many had been predicting before Trump came to power.
The contract for buying Boeing aircrafts by Iran Air almost finalized in current US administration and they suggest Iran Air can have its first delivery within one month, which is a canceled order from Turkish Airlines due to financial deficiencies. Such an offer to the Iranian airliner is a fair sign of their certainty that the nuclear deal will stay intact. The delivery of Airbus aircrafts is also another sign of Europeans do not only plan to be committed to the nuclear deal but also indicates their vision that the United States would continue to act wisely.
The other deal between Boeing and Iran Aseman Airline is initiated in Trump administration. This deal is conceptually different from the Iran Air contract since the first contract could be considered somehow political and a sign of progressive implementation of the nuclear deal and the second one is absolute business focusing on turning IAA into a regional and international budget airline by employing a large fleet of 737-MAXs.
The implication is that we are in the path toward normalization to be just like most countries capable of participating in economic and business activities all over the world, and capable of making decisions based solely on our interests instead of constantly being under emergency situation and a victim for others to exploit.
The attack on a Syrian airbase might be considered a sign of controversy in the US administration as a possibility that they are very prone to act like this toward breaking JCPOA one way or another. There is a very delicate disparity between two issues, attacking Syria and deposing Assad’s government is what many US allies and domestic forces are in favor of, and they have already cheered Trump for initiating Tomahawks. One the other hand, the deal called JCPOA is strongly supported by many of them including Democrats and Europeans, making it very hard for Trump to treat it like how he does with Syria.