After less than a single day the JCPOA had signed, the debate about the real practice of the deal emerged both within the country and abroad. Analysts from various camps provide distinct descriptions of the deal mostly derived from their different points of focus and often political agenda. However, there is only one deal that is the JCPOA itself which clarifies the timelines for each party to fulfill corresponding commitments. First, it should be illuminated that explaining the deal structure as a pure black and white phenomena is neither productive nor correct and its direct negative result would be deviation from the reality.
The implementation practice agreed in the JCPOA is a complex multilayer structure, in which all parties are submitted to distinct promises as well as trophies. There are no such things as immediate and total sanction relief and total elimination of Irans nuclear power.
Five key dates in the timeline for implementation are as follows:
- Finalization Day: in 14th of July 2015, JCPOA is signed, six days later the Security Council adopts resolution 2231 approving the JCPOA.
- Adoption Day: 90 days or less after adoption of the resolution 2231, the JCPOA comes into effect and all participants start making arrangements and preparations to implement their commitments. In this phase, provisions are made for agreed lifting of the nuclear-related sanctions in the Implementation Day by the European Union and the United States.
- Implementation Day: At the beginning of the year 2016, the first stage of practical sanction reliefs is come into effect. However, this phase is upon verification of Irans commitment to its agreed nuclear-related obligations by IAEA.
- Transition Day: Eight years from the adoption day and no later than 18th of October 2023, has the IAEA attested the broader conclusion that all nuclear materials in Iran are in peaceful activities, the EU will terminate most of its remaining sanctions, and the US will formally terminate the secondary sanctions, which from implementation day, are ceased to be in application.
- Termination Day: considering the full compliance of all parties to the deal, the Security Council will terminate the resolution 2231, and so would no longer be seized of the Iran nuclear issue. On this day, the EU will terminate all remaining sanctions in effect and on the other side Iran will be able to expand its uranium processing capabilities.
It should be noted that the first practices of sanction relief are due in the Implementation Day. Nonetheless, the primary American sanctions against its own people and through the United States are not subject to any relief in the implementation day, and will remain in force even taking into account all parties fully compliant with the JCPOA.
Another important issue is how the snap-back provisions will come into effect should any party been alleged to non-compliance. In case a party indicts any practice of non-performance to the deal by another party, some mediatory provisions are provided to solve the dispute. However, has the alleging party been not satisfied, the UN Security Council should pass a resolution to continue the deal. This implies that without the proposed resolution, the sanctions are automatically back to practice.
The most critical era in the JCPOA timeline is the 8 years span between implementation and transition days in which most sanctions are supposed to become ineffective. Thus, we believe this is of great significance for international investors to know the real practice of sanction reliefs in the Implementation Day.
(To be continued.)